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Archive for October, 2007

Another .25% Cut by the Fed

October 31, 2007 By: Morgan Brown Category: Uncategorized No Comments →

The Fed didn’t surprise anyone today, bowing to the market’s wishes for another .25% cut to the fed funds rate; bringing the benchmark lending rate to 4.5%.

From Market Watch:

While growth has been solid, “the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near-term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement.

The rate cut, along with other moves by the Fed, “should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy” from the disruption of financial markets.

The FOMC said inflation risks remain. Core inflation readings have improved modestly, “but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation,” the FOMC said.

The vote was 9-1, with Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig voting to keep rates steady.

I would just like to thank Thomas Hoenig for having the courage to be the lone dissenter on the side of caution and prudence.  I would also like to kiss the value of my American dollar good bye.  I will have more later after I work longer and harder for less real wealth.  Thanks Bernanke - really.

Fed: Will They or Won’t They?

October 31, 2007 By: Alex Stenback Category: Uncategorized No Comments →

Fed_fundsLots of handwringing in the media and blogs on the question, "Will the Fed cut rates" today.  In Fed futures land, the odds of a quarter point cut stand at 75% (see graphic.)

Despite some smart minds arguing that the Fed should not/will not cut at this point, the markets are expecting a cut, and if one thing is certain since the dawn of the Geenspan era, Mr. market gets what Mr. Market wants when it comes to Fed policy.

Let this also serve as a reminder:  The Fed does not control mortgage rates, and how these rates or the market at large will react to any Fed move is hard to predict, and will be based more upon the Fedspeak contained in the policy statement accompanying the Fed cut.  Recall that on Sept 18th, when the Fed cut, long term mortgage rates actually went up.

Fed Statment out at 1:15 central, here.
Highly entertaining Fake Fed Statment Generator Here, via Kedrosky. 

Grab Some Popcorn.
Why a Rate Cut Isn't a Sure Thing [WSJ]

Wedesday AM Linklube

October 31, 2007 By: Alex Stenback Category: Uncategorized No Comments →

Local
Centerpoint Energy to Begin Reporting to Credit Bureaus [Strib]
Elsewhere & Otherwise
The Argument Against a Rate Cut [NakedCapitalism]
Home Prices Continue Fall: Case-Schiller IDX [Bloom]
Home Seller Offers Cash Back Upon Death [WSJ]
When Will Housing Hit Bottom [WSJ]
Mortgage Defaults Jump 22% [Bloom]
The Problem with NAR Forecasts [Matrix]